China to account for over a quarter of 2015 beer consumption

By Helen Glaberson

- Last updated on GMT

Related tags Compound annual growth rate

The Asian beer market is to account for 38 per cent of total beer consumption by 2015, according to Canadean’s latest Global Beer Trends report.

The beverage research company said that with the Asian market dominated by China, in five years time it is predicted that the country will account for over a quarter of all beer consumption worldwide.

The Chinese beer market is forecast to reach 573 million hectare litres (mhls) by the end of the forecast period, over twice the size of the US, the second largest beer market in the world.

Globally Canadean said beer consumption will reach 2bn hectolitres by 2013. The report found that global growth is still relatively robust, despite the global economic crisis, with a predicted average growth rate of 2.8 per cent between 2009 and 2015.

Regional differences

According to Canadean, the global headline growth figure of the Global Beer Trends​ report masks significant differences between countries.

In terms of growth, in Asia, beer consumption is predicted to grow by 5 per cent between 2009 and 2015.

The data also revealed that the African beer market is predicted to grow by 5 per cent, with Latin America expected to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 3 per cent CAGR, and the Middle East a of 5.5 per cent over the same period.

Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Angola and India are predicted to register double digit annual growth between 2009 and 2015, and the Vietnamese market is forecast to deliver over 8 per cent of total incremental global beer volume between 2009 and 2015.

Slow European growth

In contrast, the East European market is only expected to grow by 1.5 per cent, whilst beer consumption in North America is forecast to deliver a CAGR of 0.5 per cent. Western Europe is expected to register a marginal decline.

Germany, Netherlands, Canada, France and the UK are all expected to continue to decline and in West Europe only Finland, Italy, Norway, Portugal and Spain are expected to see any growth.

Canadean said the Russian beer market was hit harder than most countries by the economic crisis due to “the fall in consumer confidence caused by the global economic downturn”​ which was also enhanced by a tripling of the beer excise duty.

This market was one of the star performers before the crisis, with a CAGR of over 11 per cent between 1999 and 2008. However, 2009 saw a fall of nearly 4 per cent, which was compounded by a further fall of 7 per cent in 2010,” ​Canadean added.

However, the company predicts that the Russian market will return to growth, although it will not touch on pre-crisis levels.

Canadean predicts a CAGR of just under 4 per cent for the period 2011 to 2015, assuming no further rise in excise duty, or legislative restrictions on beer sales.

Overall, Canadean said it saw global beer market growth slowing slightly, but with average global per capita consumption forecast at 30 litres per capita in 2015 it said “there is still plenty of potential for further growth”.

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