In a bid to strengthen its food security, Japan amended the Food System Act in April 2026 to deter below-cost transactions.
The Act introduces “cost indicators” to provide clear benchmarks for appropriate costs in price negotiations and establishes a framework for creating these indicators at each stage of the food supply chain, from production to retail.
Cost indicators are not minimum guaranteed prices, and prices remain subject to negotiation between parties.
The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) has designated five products for cost indicators: rice, vegetables, tofu (soybean curd), natto (fermented soybeans), and milk. These products were selected because they are daily necessities with short shelf lives that are bought and sold frequently and often lack sufficient price negotiation.
The reforms seek to improve cost recovery across the supply chain, giving farmers, fishermen and food manufacturers greater ability to pass rising production costs through the market and maintain stable food supplies.
The government has established guidelines for these efforts and is monitoring food transactions. It may publicly disclose the names of non-compliant businesses and report cases to the Fair Trade Commission.
This comes as concerns persist over Japan’s heavy reliance on imported food and agricultural resources.
Japan’s reliance on imports
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Japan is one of the top importers and export destinations for US agricultural and food products, ranked as the fourth-largest market globally.
“Japan’s heavy dependence on food imports is driving major initiatives to strengthen food security. Japan depends on imports for 62% of its food on a calorie basis, making it increasingly vulnerable as global food demand rises, geopolitical instability grows, and extreme weather events become more frequent,” according to a May 29 USDA report.
“Like other countries, Japan is also facing price inflation in recent years. In response, the Government of Japan (GOJ) has pursued a whole-of-government effort to address price pressures. The GOJ has promoted ‘price pass-through’ encouraging companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, to reflect increases in raw material and labour costs in their product prices. The government has also promoted cost-based information sharing to help consumers understand these price adjustments.”
Global lessons from Japan’s experience
Japan’s food supply system is facing a resource crunch as its population ages, with rising per-capita environmental demand driven by increasingly affluent consumption patterns.
“Between concerns over vulnerability to food insecurity and economic sustainability, these ongoing socioeconomic and demographic shifts impose a dual demographic pressure: a withering domestic supply constrained by a diminishing and ageing workforce, and a rising per capita demand driven by an increasingly affluent but shrinking population.”
The researchers argued that these trends could deepen Japan’s reliance on food imports, weaken domestic food system resilience and shift more environmental burdens overseas through global supply chains.
They noted rising consumption of ultra-processed and animal-based foods, which account for most land, water and greenhouse gas footprints. As a result, the researchers concluded that population decline alone is insufficient to drive sustainable food system transitions.
The researchers found that Japan’s shrinking population has not reduced food-system environmental footprints, as rising affluence and a shift towards more resource-intensive diets have offset the expected sustainability gains from demographic decline.
“Our findings reveal a clear decoupling between Japan’s consumption footprints and its population trends, particularly in recent years, indicating that factors beyond population size are driving these changes,” wrote researchers in Cleaner and Responsible Consumption.
Import-related environmental footprints
The researchers examined Japan’s food-system footprints between 2008 and 2022, covering the country’s transition from its population peak of 128 million people into an era of demographic decline.
They found that ultra-processed foods and beverages emerged as the largest contributor to Japan’s food-related environmental footprint, accounting for more than half of land use, virtual water demand and greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. Livestock and animal products were the second-largest contributor across all three measures.
In 2022, ultra-processed foods and beverages alone contributed 58% of land use (0.26 ha), 63% of virtual water (721.47 m3), and 58% of GHG emissions (0.94 tCO2eq), marking significant increases from 2009 levels of 0.22 ha, 594.88 m3, and 0.77 tCO2eq, respectively.
Researchers found that 91% of land use and 88% of virtual water demand linked to Japan’s food consumption originated overseas. This means nearly nine-tenths of the land and water resources needed to support Japan’s diet were embedded in imported products up till 2022, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on global supply chains.
Japan’s experience could offer lessons for other developed economies facing similar demographic and dietary shifts.
“At a more systemic level, Japan’s changing demographics and dietary practices, and deeply globalised food system epitomise trends observed in many affluent Western and Asian nations, trends that are increasingly characterised by ageing, often declining populations, and resource-intensive, telecoupled consumption patterns. Despite mounting evidence that global population decline may unfold sooner than anticipated, public discourse largely continues to frame overpopulation as the predominant concern, positioning countries such as Japan as anomalies rather than portents of broader systemic realignments.”
What are telecoupled consumption patterns?
Telecoupled consumption patterns refer to how consumption in one country is linked to environmental and socioeconomic impacts in other countries through globally connected supply chains.
While one study highlights the environmental and food security risks associated with demographic change and import dependence, another suggests that elements of traditional Japanese eating patterns could help address some of these challenges.
Tenets of the traditional Japanese diet: Towards a sustainable future
As policymakers seek to strengthen the economic resilience of Japan’s food system, researchers argue that preserving key elements of traditional Japanese diets may also support its long-term environmental and nutritional sustainability.
The future of sustainable eating could depend on translating the principles of traditional Japanese diets – seasonality, fermentation, plant proteins, and resource efficiency – into formats that fit modern convenience-oriented lifestyles.
Researchers in Nutrients noted that modern Japanese home cooking still broadly aligns with sustainability goals. Protein sources are relatively diversified, with limited reliance on beef and a stronger emphasis on pork, seafood, and soy-based foods, which tend to have lower environmental impacts. Traditional practices such as seasonal ingredient use, fermentation, and energy-efficient cooking methods further support ecological efficiency while maintaining cultural food heritage.
They concluded that Japanese cuisine represents a functional model of sustainable eating but its long-term viability is under pressure from dietary westernisation, rising ultra-processed food consumption, and persistent health concerns. The authors argue that future efforts should focus on adapting traditional dietary principles into modern, convenient food formats while addressing both environmental and public health constraints.
This could create opportunities for food manufacturers developing lower-sodium products, alternative proteins, fermented foods and convenience formats that retain the nutritional and sustainability benefits associated with traditional Japanese diets.
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