New trade deals, rising import volumes, and a young consumer base open to new tastes are laying the groundwork for expansion. However, analysts at BMI warn that this won’t be enough — at least not yet — to cushion the global market from the impact of US tariffs on Brazilian coffee.
Tariffs shake up trade flows and pricing
Earlier this year, the US imposed new tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, triggering volatility across global markets. Arabica futures jumped to US¢314 per pound in mid-August, marking an 11.5% increase in just one week.
This sudden spike revived concerns about supply disruptions and added pressure on roasters, importers, and logistics players managing US-bound shipments.
In response, China fast-tracked approvals for 183 new Brazilian coffee exporters, with five-year permits to boost trade flows. This came as the US market became less accessible — and more expensive — for Brazilian exporters.
For Brazil, the move was critical. As the world’s largest coffee producer, it now needs to diversify its buyer base. China, with its rising demand and regulatory green lights, has quickly become a market to watch.
Still small, but growing fast
Despite the headlines, China’s overall coffee consumption remains relatively modest — especially compared to traditional markets.
In 2024, China imported 191,107 tonnes of coffee, up nearly 190% from 2014. But to put that statistic into perspective, the US alone imported 455,686 tonnes of Brazilian coffee last year — and over 1.5 million tonnes in total.
Brazil has significantly ramped up its shipments to China in recent years, with exports having risen from just over 9,000 tonnes in 2020 to over 75,000 tonnes in 2024. One of the most notable deals came in late 2024, when Brazil’s Ministry of Development signed a five-year supply agreement with Luckin Coffee, worth an estimated 10 billion RMB.
However, despite demand rising quickly in China, it remains too small to match American volumes. The report stated: “While we believe there is potential for increased exports of Brazilian coffee to Mainland China — a process which is already well underway — China remains a relatively small player in the market, dealing with volumes that are not yet large enough to meaningfully impact prices and dynamics in the way the US and the EU do.”
A market driven by lifestyle, not habit
Unlike the US and Europe, where coffee is a daily ritual, Chinese consumers are still developing the habit. Even so, China’s consumption is a fraction of established markets — its per capita consumption is only approximately five cups a year, compared to 400 cups in the US and 1,000 in Norway. In the near term, China will certainly not replace lost US demand. But the long-term picture may tell a different story.
While coffee is not yet a daily staple for most Chinese consumers, it is increasingly seen as a premium lifestyle product. Urban middle-class consumers are leading the growth, and coffee spending may end up outpacing other hot beverages and overall consumer spending growth over the forecast period.
Trade policy favours African exporters
Brands like Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee are expanding aggressively, with Cotti signing deals in Rwanda, Ethiopia and Uganda to secure African beans. Furthermore, at the Forum on
China-Africa Cooperation Ministerial meeting in June this year, Beijing also pledged zero tariffs on coffee imports from all African countries with diplomatic ties to China.
This policy shift is likely to boost exporters in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Cameroon, which export coffee but which had, until now, been exposed to tariffs on coffee exports. However, logistics remain a hurdle, with infrastructure challenges in Africa continuing to slow supply chain efficiency.
Why small increases matter
While China’s per capita consumption is low, the sheer size of its population means that even modest increases can significantly move the needle. If average consumption rises from five to just 10 cups per year, national demand would effectively double — creating new sourcing opportunities for both Latin American and African suppliers.
This also creates room for specialty and premium offerings. Exporters able to provide traceable, sustainably grown beans with consistent quality may find themselves in high demand as Chinese consumers become more discerning.
For green coffee traders, bulk suppliers, and specialty roasters, China offers long-term potential — but only for those able to meet shifting consumer preferences and navigate a fragmented, fast-changing retail landscape.
Premiumisation gaining ground
The report suggests China’s coffee market may be following a similar pattern to wine. In the early 2000s, wine was considered a niche, luxury product. Over time, it gained traction and became part of middle-class lifestyle habits.
Coffee may now be at the start of that same trajectory. More cafes are opening in second- and third-tier cities. Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee products are also gaining ground in e-commerce and convenience retail channels.
BMI expects premiumisation — higher-end beans, origin stories, and wellness-positioned blends — to define the next phase of coffee growth in China.
What global suppliers need to know
For Brazilian producers, the outlook is mixed. On one hand, the recent approvals of new exporters and long-term supply deals with local players offer strategic advantages. On the other hand, volume gaps left by US tariffs remain substantial, and cannot be filled immediately.
For African producers, the removal of tariffs opens a window of opportunity, but infrastructure, reliability, and traceability remain barriers to scaling exports to China.
Across the board, exporters and suppliers must focus on ensuring reliable supply chains with consistent quality, and meeting traceability and sustainability standards. They must also seek to understand and target younger, urban Chinese consumers, as well as invest in brand building or partnerships with local distributors and café chains.
China won’t replace the US — yet
The report is clear: China’s coffee boom is promising but cannot immediately replace the scale and maturity of the US market. Still, over the next decade, rising consumer incomes, lifestyle shifts, and pro-trade policies could transform China from a fringe player to a major global buyer.
Exporters that plan ahead, build the right local partnerships, and understand China’s evolving taste for premium coffee will be best positioned to grow alongside the market.
