Earlier this year, China had already struck back against Trump’s first and second tariff hikes by implementing its own increases for some 820 US imports - over 700 of which were agrifood products.
“The US’s unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US,” China’s State Council Tariff Commission (CTC) had said via a strongly-worded statement.
“[As such], additional tariffs have been imposed on some imported goods originating from the United States to China starting March 10 2025.”
Following this latest round of US tariffs, China’s increased its levies from 10% to 15% in March by a further 34% today.
China previously vowed to take action to protect its own interests, calling Trump’s move ‘typical unilateral bullying’, and economic experts predicted that action would be swift and impactful - which it has been.
“Countermeasures by the Chinese government must be forceful and hit the issue precisely, but also reasonable,” said the China Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in a statement.
“This is because it is still crucial to avoid any retaliation from worsening the situation and further damaging relations between both markets.”
It remains to be seen what exactly constitutes ‘reasonable’ according to expert analysis, but China’s response issued on April 5 has very definitely been a forceful one.
“The United States announcement under various pretexts of excessive tariffs on all its trading partners, including China, has seriously infringed upon all countries’ legitimate rights and seriously violated WTO rules,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FMPRC) said via a formal statement.
“It has also seriously damaged the rules-based multilateral trading system, and severely impacted the stability of the global economic order. -The Chinese government strongly condemns and firmly opposes this, a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying.
“The United States is using tariffs to subvert the existing international economic and trade order, putting American interests above the interests of the international community, and sacrificing the legitimate interests of countries around the world to serve its own hegemonic interests of the United States.
“China does not provoke trouble, but nor are we afraid of it - Pressure and threats are not the right way to deal with China. We have, and will continue to take resolute measures to safeguard our sovereignty, security and development interests, [including] opening our doors to the international market.”
The government China imposed an additional 34% of tax on all US imports starting April 10, including the aforementioned 700+ agrifood items.
Further potential retaliatory measures include export suspensions for various US poultry and grain companies into China, all implemented on April 4 based on ‘food safety concerns’, but with more such cases expected to be implemented further down the line.
This is all bad news for the United States’ own food and agricultural sectors.US agrifood industry organisations have fervently opposed these tariff hikes in fear of food ingredient prices being massively increased.
“Broad and prolonged tariffs on our top trading partners and growing markets will risk undermining our investments, raising costs for American businesses and consumers, and creating uncertainty for American dairy farmers and rural communities,” Becky Rasdall Vargas, International Dairy Foods Association Senior Vice President Of Trade And Workforce Policy said in a formal statement.
“The U.S. dairy industry depends on strong trade relationships and access to essential ingredients, finished goods, packaging, and equipment to provide Americans with safe, affordable, and nutritious dairy foods and beverages.”
A joint statement from the US Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and National Milk Producers Association said that perhaps a more targeted approach instead of blanket tariffs should be considered.
“A firm hand and decisive approach [is needed] with markets like EU and India to correct distortive trade policies and mistreatment of American agriculture, e.g. imbalanced tariff barriers and nontariff choke-points such as the misuse of Geographical Indications to block sales of our cheeses,” said the organisations.
“However, the strong majority of our trading partner relationships are positive ones; this includes many of the countries that will see higher tariffs imposed on them.
“We encourage the administration to work swiftly with these constructive partners to negotiate new trading terms that expand opportunities for U.S. exports and secure the elimination of both tariff and non-tariff barriers.”
Other experts believe that the biggest loser in this trade war is likely to be the US consumers and businesses at the end of the day.
“Blanket tariffs will affect prices of all goods and potentially create shortages as rising prices create delays at ports and weaken demand and supply of goods,” GlobalData Senior Consumer Analyst Hannah Cleland told us.
“A more diversified supply chain both in terms of suppliers and ingredients can cushion the impact [but whilst] that said, these changes are necessary, they are not fixes as rising prices for less value will be a hard pill for consumers to swallow.”
She added that this situation is likely to be particularly obvious in the foodservice sector which operates with food and beverage as well as labour at its core.
“Foodservice operators are facing pressure both from tariffs and rising labour costs to a point where costs can no longer be absorbed, and cutbacks will have to be made - The knock-on effects of diminished staffing levels and erratic ingredient pricing and availability will result in a less consistent experience and standard of dining out for consumers,” she said.
“[This puts the sector] in a precarious position against the backdrop of already weakened sales and fierce price wars in 2024 and 2025 [and because] many specialist format outlets are reliant on importing food and beverages of specific origins.”
Institute of International Finance Head of China Research Gene Ma added that there is a similar patter to be found in the FMCG sector, where the US itself is likely to feel the impacts the most.
“Most of US imports from China are capital goods and industrial materials, not consumer products - therefore, the tariffs being imposed will have more of a negative impact on US manufacturers and consumers,” he said.
President Trump previously described the tariff hikes as ‘a useful tool for negotiating fairer terms of trade’, perhaps expecting more negotiation to be on the cards.
But this remains to be seen as after China’s latest retaliations, he rapidly posted on American social media platform Truth Social that: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!"
China also confirmed that a formal complaint had been filed against the United States with the WTO as of April 4 2025.
China’s first round of retaliation tariff hikes
China’s first round of tariff hikes earlier this year already showed that amongst the most heavily-hit products in this announcement were US exports of chicken, wheat and corn which have all been subjected to additional 15% tariffs.
“All forms of chicken, wheat and corn as well as related products will be subject to this additional taxation,” said the CTC.
“For chicken this applies whether it is fresh or frozen, whole chicken or parts of the chicken, canned or processed in other ways; for wheat and corn it applies across both agricultural and consumption uses, covering the whole product or milled into flour.”
This would be a particularly severe blow for the US chicken exports market, as China was the third-largest export destination for US chickens in 2024, according to data from the US National Chicken Council.
In addition to chicken, wheat and corn imports, a tariff increase of 10% were also implemented on the other 700-odd agri-food products list, including sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.
The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) has reported wheat exports to China in November 2024 to make up US$75.5mn (out of a total of US$418mn in global exports); and corn exports to China in 2023 as US$2.22bn (out of a global total of US$14.4bn).
How it all started
One of President Donald Trump’s first moves after reclaiming the White House earlier this year was to impose additional tariffs to ‘address an emergency situation’ of an ‘extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs including fentanyl’, which his office claimed to constitute a ‘national emergency’.
“President Trump is taking bold action to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country,” a formal White House statement said.
“Chinese officials have failed to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations.
“Tariffs are a powerful, proven source of leverage for protecting the national interest [so] President Trump is using the tools at hand and taking decisive action.”
Following this, Trump - who has famously declared ‘tariff’ to be his favourite word – first announced an additional 10% tariff increase on China on March 3, taking the total additional tariffs to 20%.
This was swiftly followed by a hike of at least 10% tariff increases for all US trade partners on April 2 – maxing out at an additional 34% for China, making the overall tariff hike for the world’s second-largest economy 54% in total.
Other major tariff hikes beyond the blanket ban for APAC markets included Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), India (26%) and Japan (24%).
