Egypt named one of ‘10 emerging markets of the future’

By Richard Whitehead contact

- Last updated on GMT

Related tags: Currency, Egypt

© iStock
© iStock
An influential new report has identified Egypt as one of the “10 emerging markets of the future” though its food industry is predicted to see a dramatic change in fortunes as part of an overall predicted slump in its primary industries over the next five years.

The paper, by BMI Research, reveals that Egypt and nine other countries will cumulatively add US$4.3tr to global GDP by 2025, becoming new drivers of economic growth.

Alongside Egypt, BMI’s report of fellow tiger markets includes Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kenya, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam.

In Egypt, BMI expects increased investment in food, as well as housing and manufacturing. It lists fruits and vegetables among the country’s key exports, and cites how a fall in the value of the Egyptian pound has significantly boosted the overall manufacturing sector’s competitiveness.

From a 2015 base of US$26.8bn, BMI predicts that the market value of Egypt’s agribusiness sector will increase to US$30.1 by 2020, though it points out that the annual growth rate will have slowed significantly to 2.4% after witnessing an increase of 7.6% between 2011 and 2015.

The report comes amid a struggling economy in Egypt, which has taken many blows since the January 25 revolution in 2011 that saw the removal of former president Hosni Mubarak from power.

In particular, Egypt has been struggling to regain its rapidly depleting foreign currency reserves. In the five years since the Arab Spring, Egypt’s foreign reserves have gone down more than 50%, from US$36bn to US%17.5bn as of June 2016.

However, this has not stopped a series of new and large investments in Egypt, primarily in the energy and housing sectors, while the agriculture economy meanders forward.

Egypt is not alone in this regard, with six of seven other countries assessed for their agribusiness health also registering sometimes dramatic falls in sector growth, such as Ethiopia, which saw average annual increase of 17.9% in the first five years of this decade, though BMI predicts this will drop to 6.8% growth in the final five.

The Philippines, with an increase from 4.5% to 4.7% over the two periods, is alone in sustaining its agribusiness growth.

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