Chinese poultry production forecasts flat for 2015
Production is forecast to remain flat at 13 million tons (mt), however this is on the back of two years of production declines. However further growth in the Chinese broiler production industry may well be hindered by flat consumption and the expectation that feed prices are to remain historically high during 2015.
“Furthermore industry has faced significant financial losses resulting from the avian influenza outbreaks,” said the report.
While there is a growing demand for other meats in China, forecasts for the consumption of poultry remain almost unchanged at 12.8mt in 2015, as concerns over avian influenza, and a number of domestic meat processing scandals, have dented consumer confidence.
Earlier this year OSI Group’s Shanghai Husi Food Co hit the headlines after undercover filming reportedly showed workers using meat that had been on the floor as well as out of date beef and chicken.
Demand for broiler meat has also been limited by the lower prices seen for pork, said the report. “On the other hand, high beef prices are encouraging consumers to shift towards price-competitive broiler meat,” it added.
Total imports in 2014 have seen a slight upward revision to 240,000t, thanks to an increase in the volume of shipments from Brazil, although that figure is set to drop 2% to 235,000t in 2015.
From January to July this year, Brazil had a 49% of the import market, with the US holding a 43% share, and Argentina 6%. Over the same period, China saw 53% of its exports go to Japan, 27% to Hong Kong, 4% to the EU and 7% to Malaysia.
Exports are forecast to rise 5% to 460,000t next year, driven by robust demand from major markets, in particular Malaysia, where demand from the food vending sector has seen increased demand for chicken cuts. Exports for 2014 are predicted to reach 440,000 due to strong demand from Japan.
The Chinese broiler industry is also keen to obtain access to the Russia market and is seeking assistance from the Chinese authorities, added the report.
